### Venezuela Oil Production: Current Status & Forecasts (January 2026)
Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves (~303 billion barrels), but production has been severely hampered by U.S. sanctions (since 2019), infrastructure decay, corruption, and political instability under the Maduro regime. As of early 2026, the situation remains constrained, with modest gains from limited sanctions relief.
#### Current Production (Late 2025 – Early 2026)
- **Daily Output**: ~900,000–950,000 barrels per day (bpd) – up from ~700k–800k bpd in 2023–2024, thanks to Chevron and other licensed operators ramping heavy crude production in the Orinoco Belt.
- **Key Drivers**: PDVSA (state-owned) partnerships with Chevron, Eni, Repsol; exports mostly to China/India (discounts ~$10–15/barrel below Brent).
- **Challenges**: Aging infrastructure, power outages, lack of diluent for heavy oil, ongoing sanctions on PDVSA.
#### Short-Term Forecasts (2026–2027)
- **OPEC Estimates** (December 2025 MOMR): ~1.0–1.1 million bpd in 2026 (modest +100k–150k growth) if current licenses hold; no major ramp without full sanctions lift.
- **EIA International Energy Outlook** (latest 2025 update): 950k–1.05M bpd average 2026, assuming gradual Chevron-led recovery but limited investment.
- **Reuters/Bloomberg Consensus** (Q4 2025 surveys): 0.95M–1.2M bpd by end-2026 in base case; upside to 1.5M if broader license expansions.
- **2-Week/1-Month Outlook**: Stable ~920k–960k bpd (holiday season low demand, maintenance).
#### Medium-Term Forecasts (2028–2030)
- **Base Case (No Major Change)**: 1.0–1.3M bpd by 2030 – slow recovery limited by debt ($150B+ arrears) and capex shortages.
- **Bull Case (Sanctions Relief/Transition)**: 2.0–3.0M bpd by 2030 – if political liberalization attracts $50–100B FDI (similar to post-Chavez hopes).
- **Bear Case**: <800k bpd if new sanctions or collapse.
#### Key Factors Influencing Forecasts
- **Positive**: Chevron license extensions (through 2026+), potential Trump-era policy shifts, high oil prices incentivizing partners.
- **Negative**: Maduro consolidation post-2024 disputed election, migration crisis, hyperinflation remnants, PDVSA mismanagement.
- **Wildcards**: Opposition breakthroughs, U.S. policy (OFAC licenses), global demand for heavy sour crude.
Venezuela's recovery potential is massive but politically gated. For institutional portfolios, exposure via majors (Chevron, Repsol) offers indirect upside with lower risk.
Sources: OPEC MOMR (Dec 2025), EIA, Reuters (Jan 2026 updates).
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