Global Oil Demand Growth Projections (January 2026 Update)
Global oil demand growth is expected to slow significantly in 2026 compared to prior years, with forecasts ranging from 0.8–1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-over-year. This reflects cooling economic momentum, energy efficiency gains, EV adoption, and non-OPEC supply surges leading to market surpluses.
#### Major Agency Forecasts (Late 2025 Reports)
- OPEC (December 2025 MOMR):
Growth: ~1.4 mb/d (unchanged from prior; most bullish).
Total demand: ~106.4–106.5 mb/d.
Drivers: Non-OECD (Asia-led) ~1.2 mb/d growth; OECD flat/slight decline.
- IEA (December 2025 Oil Market Report):
Growth: ~860 kb/d (0.86 mb/d).
Total demand: ~104.7 mb/d.
Drivers: Modest gains in petrochemicals/aviation; offset by efficiency and alternatives.
Note: IEA most bearish; expects supply surplus ~3.8 mb/d.
- EIA (December 2025 STEO):
Growth: ~1.1 mb/d (adjusted upward slightly for China).
Total demand: ~105.2 mb/d.
Focus: Inventory builds >2 mb/d pressuring prices downward.
Consensus Range: 0.9–1.2 mb/d average growth; surplus supply dominating narrative.
Regional Breakdown (Approximate)
- Non-OECD (Asia, Middle East, Africa): +1.0–1.3 mb/d (primary driver).
- OECD: Flat to -0.1 mb/d (efficiency + EVs).
-Key Growth Areas: Petrochemical feedstocks, aviation recovery.
-Headwinds: Slowing China GDP, electric vehicle penetration.
Visual Trends (2024–2026 Projections)
Here are illustrative charts from recent reports showing slowing demand growth amid supply surplus:
Demand growth peaked post-COVID (~2–3 mb/d in 2022–2023) but decelerates as transitions accelerate. 2026 marks potential "peak demand" debates intensifying.
Sources: OPEC MOMR (Dec 2025), IEA OMR (Dec 2025), EIA STEO (Dec 2025).
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