OPEC+ Production Cuts: Status & Trends (January 3, 2026 Update) 📉
OPEC+ (OPEC and allies including Russia) has maintained aggressive production cuts since 2022 to support prices amid surpluses. As of early 2026, over 3 million bpd of cuts remain in place, but the group has paused further unwinding for Q1 amid glut fears.
Historical Context
- Cuts began 2022–2023 (deep reductions post-COVID).
- Voluntary extra cuts by "Group of Eight" (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) added ~2.2M bpd.
- Gradual unwinding started April 2025 (~2.9M bpd returned by late 2025).
- Compliance varied (some overproduction offset by others).
Current Cuts & Decisions (Late 2025 – Early 2026)
- November 30/December 2025 Meetings: Reaffirmed pause on planned output hikes for January–March 2026 (seasonality + surplus concerns).
- Group of Eight: Extended pause on voluntary increments.
- Overall Policy: Quotas held steady into Q1; next review January 4, 2026 meeting.
- Remaining Cuts: ~3–3.2M bpd below baselines (core + voluntary).
Production Levels Impact
- OPEC+ Output: ~43M bpd required for balance; actual ~41–42M bpd with cuts.
- Compliance: High in late 2025; overproduction risks monitored.
Visual Trends (OPEC+ Cuts & Production)
OPEC+ cuts face pressure from non-OPEC growth and slowing demand – 2026 likely features cautious management to avoid deeper gluts.
Sources: OPEC press releases, Reuters, MEES (Dec 2025–Jan 2026).
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